America is used to being a place people move toward, not away from. But a new estimate from economists suggests 2025 may have flipped the script: more immigrants left the United States than entered, a turn not seen “in at least a half a century.”
The Brookings Institution put it plainly: “There was a significant drop-off in entries to the United States in 2025 relative to 2024 and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures.”
“We estimate that net migration was between –10,000 and –295,000 in 2025, the first time in at least half a century it has been negative,” Brookings said. “In our assessment, net migration is likely to be very low or negative in 2026 as well.”
Brookings also warned the effects won’t stay confined to border policy memos and airport lines.
“Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026,” the report added.
The more interesting point may be the least cinematic one. Brookings argues the big driver wasn’t deportation imagery — it was fewer people arriving in the first place.
“Though deportations and other exits receive more media attention, a slowdown in new arrivals, especially via humanitarian parole and refugee programs and across the Southwest border, has a bigger effect on reducing migration flows in 2025.”
And Brookings ties that slowdown to a sharp policy shift.
“The first year of the second Trump administration has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration to the United States,” the report said. “We expect the pattern of restrictive policy and increased enforcement to continue or intensify through the coming year.”
By contrast, the Washington Post reported that during the Biden administration, immigration surged, with 2 to 3 million people arriving in the U.S. each year.
Still, the story comes with a footnote—and the footnote matters. Brookings concedes the math is contested: “Our estimate of net migration of –295,000 to –10,000 for 2025 differs from some other prominent estimates. The most recent version of the Congressional Budget Office demographic estimates, released in January 2026, suggests net migration of around +400,000 for 2025,” the report said, citing different assumptions about deportations and “voluntary out-migration.”
We have two ledgers open on the same desk, telling different accounts. One says the tide turned. Another says it merely slowed. Either way, the era of “infinite inflow” suddenly feels less like a law of nature—and more like a policy choice.
