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Trust Nothing, Verify Everything: Inside Vance’s Iran Strategy

(Photo by Nathan Howard-Pool/Getty Images)

The Vice President stood on the tarmac in Switzerland and chose his words like a man who has learned what words are worth.

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JD Vance said the administration made significant progress with Iran over what he called a productive 36 hours. He sounded pleased. He did not sound finished.

“I feel great about the progress that we made over the last couple of days,” he said.

The headline result: Iran agreed to let nuclear inspectors back into the country. That was the point of the exercise. The administration wants assurance that Tehran cannot build a bomb, and inspectors on the ground are how you get it.

But Vance kept returning to one idea, and it was not optimism. It was suspicion, the useful kind.

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“Whether good faith or bad faith, you can’t trust anybody’s words. You have to trust what they actually do,” he said. The president, he explained, asked them to verify what Iran does and to worry less about what Iran says.

There was other work. Negotiators pushed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and to maintain the regional ceasefire, with Israel and Gulf Arab partners lending support. On the question of Iran’s frozen assets, Vance drew a hard line. The money stays frozen unless progress continues, he said, and anything released would be watched, limited, and tied to a purpose. No open checkbook.

He also waved off the day’s drama. Social media had declared the talks dead after reports that an Iranian official walked out.

“There was this social media firestorm where everybody said the Iranians are going to leave. And then we proceeded to talk to them for like the next nine hours,” he said. His advice to reporters: be careful what you believe from Iranian social media during a delicate negotiation.

Then came the line that did the most work, because it promised much and promised nothing.

“This is laying a foundation for what could be a truly transformed Middle East,” he said. “But we haven’t built a house yet.”

A foundation is not a house.

Vance knows the difference, and he wanted everyone watching to know he knows it.

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