Refunds have a way of arriving like a little absolution. A letter from the government that says, in effect, we took too much — here, have some back.
This year, the Trump White House wants Americans to notice the size of that envelope.
The administration says taxpayers can expect about a $1,000 boost in the average refund this filing season, with Treasury projecting $429 billion in refunds—up from $329 billion last year. If those projections hold, the typical refund will exceed $4,000.
“Millions of Americans are poised to receive significantly larger tax refunds thanks to President Donald J. Trump’s landmark Working Families Tax Cuts Act — which every Democrat in Congress opposed,” the White House said, referring to legislation also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“The historic legislation is delivering the biggest tax refund season ever.”
Last year, more than three-fifths of U.S. households received refunds averaging $3,167, according to data cited by The Wall Street Journal. This year’s surge, the administration says, reflects the combined effect of multiple provisions in Trump’s sweeping tax overhaul—signed into law last year.
Republicans made the tax cuts retroactive to the 2025 tax year, while IRS withholding tables stayed unchanged—meaning many workers paid at higher rates throughout the year and receive the benefit later, in a lump sum. And lump sums, arriving months before midterms, have a way of concentrating the mind.
Not every filer gets a refund—about 60% do—but for those who do, the payout is expected to be notably larger.
One provision highlighted in the rollout: the increase in the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, which the Tax Foundation said accounts for about one-quarter of the individual tax cuts.
In Washington, nothing is ever just an outcome. It’s a message. A mood. A bet on what people will feel when the number hits their account.
And in an election year, the White House is betting Americans will remember the refund.
Thanks to @POTUS’ actions, wages and tax refunds are going up – and inflation, gas prices, and rent are going down.
A non-inflationary boom will take off in 2026, and working Americans from all walks of life will feel the difference. pic.twitter.com/yJgWnuna4z
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) January 27, 2026
Americans will see an average $1,000 boost to their tax refunds – thanks to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill https://t.co/8u9SxgE4Dr pic.twitter.com/OyNZ1ZbHRo
— New York Post (@nypost) January 27, 2026
