According to an Axios report, the United States is on pace for the most significant one-year drop in murders ever recorded, based on an analysis by crime data expert Jeff Asher.
It is a sharp reversal from the COVID-era spike — and it is not confined to one city, one coast, or one demographic slice. It is national. It is broad. And it is real.
Data from the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles reports from 570 law-enforcement agencies, shows murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024. Mass killings have also declined, falling in 2025 to their lowest level since 2006.
The database runs through October and excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, and accidental killings. The FBI will not release official 2025 figures until next year, but the index has historically tracked closely with federal data.
The change is not limited to homicide.
Motor vehicle theft is down 23.2%.
Aggravated assault is down 7.5%.
Robbery is down 18.3%.
In big cities — where the damage of the past few years was most visible — the drops are striking. New York City and Memphis each recorded murder declines near 20%. Chicago saw killings fall almost 28%. Los Angeles County posted a nearly 19% drop. New Orleans saw a 7.5% decline.
This is not uniform everywhere. It never is. But the direction is unmistakable.
After years of fear, chaos, and pandemic-era disorder, something is changing on America’s streets.
FBI Director Kash Patel marked the moment on X: “U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record – not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do.”
It is a rare piece of good news — the kind that does not announce itself with fanfare, but with fewer funerals.
And in a country long accustomed to bad headlines, that may be the most meaningful metric of all.
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) December 24, 2025
