This week, polling pro and founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver accused his fellow pollsters of manipulating data, creating the appearance that the 2024 presidential race is closer than it is; “You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he said on his Risky Business podcast.
“I don’t think we’re going to learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less. Every time a pollster, ‘Oh, every state is just a plus one. Every single state’s a tie.’ No, you’re f–king herding. You’re cheating. You’re cheating,” Silver said. “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale. I will not name names, but some pollsters are really bad about this. Emerson College. Whoops, was that recorded? Oops, sorry.”
“Insider advantage — all these GOP-leaning [firms], it’s always, ‘Oh, we’re not going out too far on a limb.’ It’s just Trump plus one in Pennsylvania every f–king single time. No, that’s not how f–king polling works. That’s not how polling is supposed to work,” he added. “So you get herding … Basically the pollsters are 50/50 in a forecast because not all base rates are 50/50, right? The pollsters are just f–king punting, except The New York Times that actually has balls, right? The pollsters are just f–king punting on this election for the most part.”
RealClearPolling currently has the race in a dead heat, with Trump just +0.3% ahead of Harris. The two candidates are also deadlocked at 48% in the final New York Times/Siena College poll.
In a recent New York Times op-ed, Silver said his “gut says” Trump will win.
“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver wrote.
“Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’” he went on. “So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”
