During an interview with Fox News’ Steve Hilton over the weekend, Elbridge Colby, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, warned that China is “likely to go for an invasion” of Taiwan in the near future.
“I actually think China’s most likely, if it really wants to solve the Taiwan issue, which I do think is really consequential for American’s interests in a concrete way, I think they’re likely to go for an invasion,” Colby said. “I mean, the basic thing is these shows the force that you’re showing, they’re not going to work to subordinate Taiwan, if China’s really serious about it, it’s going to go for [inaudible], it’s going to move in, take it over, and then present us with just simply too difficult of a reality to reverse.”
“And why should we care about that? So what if they invade Taiwan would be the provocative question back to you?” Hilton asked.
“Well, I think it’s a completely legitimate question, actually. And I think there’s a lot a lot to it,” Colby responded. “I mean, our interest in in Taiwan are very significant, but partial. The fundamental reason is that Taiwan is connected to the fate of what I think of as our coalition in Asia. Look, our lives would fundamentally change if China dominated the world. And the way for it to dominate the world is for it to dominate its region, which is going to be over 50% of global GDP, the way to get there is to break apart any group of states that tries to block it from doing so.”
“That group is going to be led by us, there’s nobody else who can do it,” Colby continued. “But it’s gonna include countries like Japan, Taiwan, India, maybe Vietnam, Australia, etc. If China wants to do that, it’s got to put a sort of a knife at the heart of our coalition. And to do that, Taiwan makes a lot of sense for two reasons. One is Taiwan, MacArthur called it the unsinkable aircraft carrier. If China gets Taiwan that its operating in the Central Pacific. Think, in a way, almost World War II in the Pacific.”
“The second reason is whatever people say, our credibility is tied to it,” he added. “And credibility isn’t something that matters all the time. But it sure matters if you’re in Japan, or the Philippines, or an archipelago in the western Pacific, and you say, well, the Americans have backed down from defending another archipelago in the western Pacific, namely Taiwan. So the key though is that we got to find a way to be able to defend Taiwan in a way that’s consistent with how deep our interests are, our interests are important, but they’re not existential. And that’s a real kind of core point in my book.”
Over the summer, China’s communist dictator Xi Jinping indicated that China was planning to invade Taiwan during a speech celebrating the 100-year anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.
“We must accelerate the modernization of national defense and the armed forces. A strong country must have a strong military, as only then can it guarantee the security of the nation,” Xi said, later adding, “Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China. We must take resolute action to utterly defeat any attempt toward ‘Taiwan independence.’”
In June, experts noted that China was working to “accelerate their modernization programs to develop capabilities to seize Taiwan” by 2027. Soon after, the Washington Post reported that China was adding more than 100 new missile silos.
“The 119 nearly identical construction sites contain features that mirror those seen at existing launch facilities for China’s arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles,” The Washington Post reported. “The acquisition of more than 100 new missile silos, if completed, would represent a historic shift for China, a country that is believed to possess a relatively modest stockpile of 250 to 350 nuclear weapons.”
