The Democratic Party is bleeding out its base. In 30 states, the story is the same: Republicans are climbing, Democrats are slipping.
According to the New York Times, using data from the nonpartisan firm L2, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between 2020 and 2024. Republicans, by contrast, picked up 2.4 million. It’s the first time since 2018 the GOP outpaced Democrats in new registrations nationwide.
Yes, Democrats still hold a numerical edge—but it is shrinking fast. In states that track party affiliation, the gap narrowed from 11 points in 2020 to just 6 in 2024.
Michael Pruser of Decision Desk HQ put it starkly: “I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this. There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”
Tom Bonier, a longtime Democratic strategist and registration expert, admitted he had brushed off the danger. “I was wrong,” he conceded. “Clearly, in retrospect, we can say the Democratic Party had dug itself in too deep a hole in the preceding four years for the Harris campaign to dig itself out in the last few months.” The numbers, he said, are “a big flashing red alert.”
More over at The New York Times:
NEW at NYT: The Democratic Party is facing a voter registration crisis in red, blue and battleground states alike — losing ground to the GOP everywhere.
My deep dive into the numbers and what it reveals about the party's brand.
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— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) August 20, 2025
