Nine percent.
That is what Kamala Harris draws as a first-choice presidential candidate in her own home state, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
In the place that knows her best, where her political identity was forged, fewer than one in ten Democrats are raising their hand for her.
The survey, conducted March 9 through 14 among more than five thousand registered voters, is not a national snapshot. It is something more personal than that. It is California’s verdict — and California is not being kind.
Governor Gavin Newsom leads the field at 28 percent, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Harris, the former vice president of the United States and the party’s 2024 standard-bearer, trails them all.
When second-choice voters are factored in, the gap only widens — Newsom draws 42 percent combined support, Harris just 20.
Even Newsom’s position at the top offers little comfort to the party faithful.
“Receiving support from only roughly a quarter of those in the Golden State is worrying,” said Berkeley IGS Poll director Mark DiCamillo. A leader polling at 28 percent in his own state is not a juggernaut. He is a work in progress. His job approval has slipped from 51 percent in August to 48 percent today, and his disapproval has climbed five points.
The Democratic Party, it seems, is searching. It has not yet found what it is looking for.
Harris, meanwhile, is on her “107 Days” book tour, retracing the arc of a campaign that ended in defeat last November. She has pointed to limited time as a factor in her loss to President Trump.
That is a fair observation, as far as it goes. But polls do not traffic in fairness. They traffic in numbers. And the numbers in her home state suggest that Democratic voters, even those who know her story best, are already turning the page.
Neither Harris nor Newsom has formally declared a 2028 run. There is time — years of it.
Political fortunes have reversed from far worse positions than this.
But momentum has a direction, and right now it is not pointing toward the former vice president.
The home crowd isn’t cheering. In politics, that is always the place to start worrying.
